“Diapers are running out!” In recent days, the fear of rising prices and shortages of diapers has spread among many mothers, leading to a surge in platform sales. A certain WeChat business diaper brand recently issued a limited purchase order to alleviate the pressure of hoarding.
Impacted by the epidemic, rumors about “diaper raw materials being used for epidemic prevention products, diapers prices skyrocketing, and market shortages” have been circulating in the maternal and child industry.
On one hand, due to the higher profit margin of masks compared to diapers, some upstream raw material suppliers have prioritized supplying mask companies. In addition, many enterprises have set up mask production lines, leading to a tighter supply of upstream raw materials such as non-woven fabrics. On the other hand, with the worsening epidemic situation overseas and countries entering emergency states, unstable logistics routes and paralyzed overseas shopping agents have increased concerns among consumers of imported diaper brands.
In fact, the foreign epidemic has not only caused uncertainty in the sales of imported diaper brands in China but also cast a shadow on the production and supply of domestic diaper brands that rely on imported raw materials and equipment.
So, have diapers really increased in price? Will there be shortages? What is the current sales and inventory situation? “联商网” conducted a survey on the main offline and online supply channels in China.
Large supermarkets have not raised prices and are operating steadily
Have diaper prices increased? Many supermarkets including Tmall and Lianhua have stated to “联商网” that since the outbreak of the epidemic, diaper prices have remained stable, sales have even exceeded expectations.
A person in charge of Darunfa told “联商网” that baby diapers are directly affected by the birth rate (the birth rate in 2019 hit a historic low), especially in February during the epidemic, the growth of diaper products at Darunfa was higher than baby milk powder. However, after major e-commerce platforms resumed supply in March, performance was significantly impacted. Events like “JD Baby Day” and “420 Alibaba Parent-Child Festival” since April have had a major impact on offline supermarket diaper performance.
Sales data provided by Lianhua further shows that during the epidemic period, the operation of the diaper category was not affected and showed overall growth in the past three months.
According to “联商网,” Lianhuas diaper sales in stores increased by 26% month-on-month in February and 24% in March. The sales of domestic brands increased by 63% in February and 13.5% in March, while imports remained stable in February and increased by 38% in March. Lianhua stated that during the epidemic, consumers reduced going out, leading to a phenomenon of stocking up on essential items like diapers. Lianhua also timely opened up online payment methods to ensure a convenient shopping experience for customers, which contributed to the ideal sales results of diapers.
Japan and South Korea are the main countries of origin for imported diaper brands, and several large supermarkets have made adequate preparations in response to the foreign epidemic situation. Tmall stated that since February, they have adjusted the stock of imported and domestic diapers separately. The backup cycle for imported diapers is 90 days, while domestic diaper brands are the reserve force, and overall inventory remains sufficient. Lianhua mentioned that imported diaper brands have not been affected by the foreign epidemic for now. For example, the supply of Japans Kao Corporation is sufficient, and there will be no impact on inventory in the short term. The person in charge of Darunfa also stated that the Japanese epidemic is relatively under control, and the source of imported diapers from Japan is currently normal.
Top e-commerce platforms have seen a large increase in sales and sufficient inventory
While offline physical retail stores are preparing for the demand for diapers, what is the situation on online supply platforms? “联商网” observed on e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, JD, and Pinduoduo that diaper products are well stocked and have varying degrees of discounts. With Tmall Supermarkets anniversary approaching, many diaper brands, including imported brands, are offering discounts. For example, a pack of S88 (S size x 88 pieces) of imported Kao diapers from Japan is priced at 109 yuan, with a 50 yuan discount for 2 packs, making the price per pack 84 yuan. However, this promotion is based on limited purchases, and purchases exceeding 100 items will not be possible.
“Since the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, we took action in advance, secured international flight space, and worked with brand partners to ensure import supply. Looking at it today, it was just in time.” The person in charge of Suning Internationals maternal and child category told “联商网.” “Currently, the vast majority of imported milk powder and diaper inventory on the platform is sufficient, so there should be no problem in ensuring the food supply for babies.” Data shows that as of 12:00 on April 15, sales of imported milk powder and diapers during Suning Internationals 418 period increased by 103% year-on-year.
Faced with a surge in consumer demand, Suning International has made efforts in stocking up. “For platforms like 418 and the import day on the 20th of each month, in order to ensure the timely supply of imported goods and meet market demand as much as possible, our supply chain has invested a lot of manpower and financial resources to increase air transportation, extending the original one-month backup cycle to two months,” the person in charge said.
Summary
From the survey results, it can be seen that currently, whether offline or online, the prices of diaper products in Chinas main supply channels are relatively stable, and inventory is sufficient. However, due to the unclear global epidemic situation, there is still a high level of uncertainty in the diaper industry. Supermarkets have stated, “Suppliers will decide whether to increase prices based on market assessments.” Another view is that when inventory runs out, prices may increase.
(Source: Lianshang.net Wang Xue)
